Statistics and Crime

Statistically crime is on the decline, so say the experts. I found this difficult to believe because of what I see and deal with working my second job as a N.Y. State certified armed security officer. It’s a sad statement about our society today when fast food establishments have to hire armed professionals to protect their customers and assets. So before I put my Springfield in the safe I thought I’d do some checking about crime locally.

So where are the experts getting these statistics that show crime is on the decline? I guess it depends on which “expert” you talk to, but not being one of those experts I went to the FBI UNIFORM CRIME REPORT:

http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/prelim2007/index.html

The FBI collects information about crime from police agencies all over the country and publishes the results annually – it seemed like a reliable source of information to me. The only problem with this report is that it is behind. The latest information is from 2007. Here is what they show for ROCHESTER:

			VIOLENT		FORCIBLE		AGGRAVATED	PROPERTY		LARCENY	AUTO
CITY	YEAR	POPULATION	CRIMES	MURDER	RAPE	ROBBERY	ASSAULT	CRIME	BURGLARY	THEFT	THEFT
BUFFALO	2006	280,494	2,024	31	91	868	1,034	6,904	1,993	3,874	1,037
	2007		1,630	22	81	678	849	7,334	1,935	4,354	1,045
NEW YORK	2006	8,165,001	25,132	266	662	10,842	13,362	73,677	10,489	55,367	7,821
	2007		23,887	235	420	9,759	13,473	70,885	9,786	54,864	6,235
ROCHESTER	2006	211,656	1,242	19	46	620	557	6,213	1,119	3,847	1,247
	2007		1,086	27	50	431	578	5,101	1,032	3,201	868
SYRACUSE	2006	142,062	779	10	35	259	475	3,224	842	2,006	376
	2007		676	9	31	200	436	2,731	787	1,685	259
YONKERS	2006	196,951	487	5	11	234	237	1,675	302	1,159	214
	2007		396	5	21	155	215	1,312	288	864	160
			-12.56%	42.11%	8.70%	-30.48%	3.77%	-17.90%	-7.77%	-16.79%	-30.39%

OK, now I see it - violent crimes are down 12.56 % but I also see that murder, rape and assaults are up. Of course I care if someone steels my car or my new patio set from my deck but not nearly as much as I do about being killed, raped or assaulted. So technically speaking, crime in Rochester may be down 12.56%, which is great, but the crimes I worry most about continue to rise. Heck, even New York City did better than Rochester - declining in every category accept AGGRAVATED ASSAULT!

You say you live in the “burbs”, not downtown Rochester so you don’t have to worry about it. Guess again. Don’t you think the politicians look at these stats too? You can bet the bullet in Barney’s shirt pocket the mayor is putting pressure on the police chief to reduce crime in the city. I see more police now than I ever did and when hunting grounds dry up what do you think the predators do? They go where the prey is – the “burbs”! I just heard on the radio this morning there has been an increase of robberies in the “315” area on Rt. 104 - they think it’s the same person and that they are not a local but from the city.

Well, what’s all this mean to you? I’ll let you draw your own conclusions but for me it means I need to continue training, follow my instincts and watch my six even more.